Print this page

استخدام طريقة الانحدار في التنبؤ بالجفاف في خمس ولايات في السودان

Use of Regression Method in Prediction of Drought in five areas in Sudan
Dr. Suhad Ali Osman Abdallah

Assistant Professor at the Community College for Girls Khamis Mushait King Khalid University1 – KSA
استخدام طريقة الانحدار في التنبؤ بالجفاف في خمس ولايات في السودان
د. سهاد علي عثمان عبد الله
أستاذ مساعد تخصص إحصاء بكلية المجتمع للبنات بخميس مشيط جامعة الملك خالد1 – المملكة العربية السعودية
1 تود الباحثة شكر جامعة الملك خالد
على دعمها الفني والإداري لهذا البحث

 


Abstract
This paper aimed to explore the possibility of the use of logistic regression in the prediction of drought in Sudan. In this paper Regression models were used to predict drought in 5 states in Sudan. Results showed that the average prediction error for above-average and below-average years is reported for each station. Area-specific statistics are listed in Table1. Correlations between predictions and observations range from r = −0.31 to r = −0.68, with the model performing slightly better in predicting the number of wet days in drier years. In general, however, the simple linear model displays an average absolute error ranging between 9 and 22 days.
Keywords: Regression, Drought.

 

تحميل البحث

We use cookies to improve our website. By continuing to use this website, you are giving consent to cookies being used. More details…